THE UNDECIDED RESPONDENT IN MANDATORY VOTING SETTINGS: A VENEZUELAN EXPLORATION
In: The Western political quarterly: official journal of Western Political Science Association, Volume 36, Issue 3, p. 420-433
ISSN: 0043-4078
IN MANDATORY VOTING SYSTEMS INDIVIDUALS WHO REPORT THEMSELVES UNDECIDED IN SURVEYS DO EVENTUALLY VOTE. USING VENEZUELAN DATA FROM 1978, WE DEMONSTRATE THE UTILITY OF DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION ANALYSIS IN HELPING TO PROVIDE AN UNDERSTANDING OF THESE VOTERS. IN AN ELECTION IN WHICH THE TWO MAJOR CANDIDATES DID NOT DIFFER SHARPLY ON ISSUES POSITIONS, AND THE "OUT" PARTY'S CANDIDATE WAS THE SURPRISE WINNER, WE ARGUE THAT UNDECIDED RESPONDENTS CAST THEIR BALLOT OVERWHELMINGLY FOR THE CANDIDATE OF THE "OUT" PARTY IN AN EFFORT TO REMOVE THE "IN" PARTY FROM OFFICE. FINDING THE INCUMBENT PARTY WANTING AND DISTRUSTING THE MILITANT LEFT, THE UNDECIDEDS VOTED FOR THE "OUT" CENTRIST PARTY ALTHOUGH THEY VIEWED ITS CANDIDATE NO MORE FAVORABLY THAN THE CANDIDATE OF THE "IN" CENTRIST PARTY. THIS EXERCISE OF RETROSPECTIVE VOTING SUGGESTS THAT, AT LEAST IN VENEZUELA, DISAPPOINTMENT WITH GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY LEAD TO SUPPORT OF MILITANT LEFT OR RIGHT PARTIES.